2026 Midterm Primaries: California, Iowa, and New Jersey Races Shape Fall Outlook

Primary elections across six states on June 2, 2026, have set up critical fall matchups, with California’s gubernatorial race drawing the most national attention. In the crowded 61-candidate contest, Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra hold narrow early leads over billionaire Tom Steyer, whose record-breaking $200 million ad spend failed to secure a top-two finish. Strategic voting and Trump’s late endorsement appear to have consolidated the Republican field, averting fears of an all-Democratic runoff. Meanwhile, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has advanced to November, with independent Spencer Pratt leading Councilwoman Nithya Raman for the second spot, buoyed by voter anger over the 2025 Palisades wildfires.

Beyond California, the primaries revealed significant shifts and down-ballot surprises. In Iowa, moderate Democrat Josh Turek won the Senate primary and will face Rep. Ashley Hinson, while Republican Zach Lahn upset Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra for the gubernatorial nomination. In New Jersey, Rep. Tom Kean Jr. secured the GOP nomination unopposed despite months of congressional absence. Notably, California voters also soundly rejected local tax increases in San Diego, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, while Republican-turned-independent Kevin Kiley may upend Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting plan by advancing to a general election in the redrawn 6th district. As mail-in ballots are counted, the results highlight a Democratic coalition testing strategies against a GOP navigating post-Trump realignment.